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Polling continues to hold positive signs for marriage equality in Maryland

Marriage equality

By Jacob Combs

Maryland’s marriage equality ballot initiative, Question 6, would pass if the November election were held today, according to a new Washington Post poll that found 52 percent of likely voters planning to vote for the measure and 43 percent planning to vote against it.  Thirty-nine percent of respondents said they were strongly in favor of the measure, while 36 percent were strongly opposed.  Five percent of likely voters had no opinion, and the poll had a margin of error of four points.

Digging down into the poll’s breakdowns, Question 6 enjoys more support from women (who favor it by a 54-40 percent margin) than men (whose margin is 51-46 percent).  White voters support it by a 56-39 percent margin, with 49 percent of non-white voters planning to vote for Question 6 and 47 percent planning to vote against.  Among African-American voters, the margin is 53 percent opposed to 42 percent in favor.

Not unexpectedly, the Post poll found a wide discrepancy amongst different age groups: 64 percent of likely voters between 18 and 39 support Question 6, compared with 51 percent of 40-64 year olds and just 40 percent of voters over 65.  The poll also found a not surprising split between respondents based on party identification, with 58 percent of Democrats supporting the measure and only 32 percent of Republicans doing so.  Perhaps significantly, however, independents favored it by an even wider margin than Democrats, with 62 percent support and only 34 percent opposition.

Last Friday, Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker told a radio host that he supports Question 6, marking yet another prominent African-American in the important Baltimore-Washington area county to come out in favor of the measure.  Prince George’s County, which has a large African-American population, will undoubtedly be important to the fate of Question 6 in November.  As Metroweekly noted, Baker is the 17th elected official in the county to support Question 6, and the 30th African-American elected official in the state to do so.

Also last week, Marylanders for Marriage Equality released a video featuring several African-American clergy members who support Question 6 that addressed the law’s explicit protections for religious institutions that do not agree with marriage equality.  You can watch that video, as well as the final video from the marriage equality website The Four, which focuses on Maryland, below.

Clergy for Question 6

Marriage for All Families: Stories from Maryland

 

12 Comments

  • 1. Kevin  |  October 23, 2012 at 8:24 am

    That's… not great news. My general experience watching the polls is the only number that matters is the support side. And the polling usually over estimates support by a point or two. So that 52-43 split is really a toss up.

  • 2. Straight Ally #3008  |  October 23, 2012 at 11:54 am

    I'm hoping that the President will have long coat tails with respect to this initiative, as well as the ones in Maine, Washington, and Minnesota, which will all go Democratic.

  • 3. Mike in Baltimore  |  October 23, 2012 at 4:47 pm

    Research has shown that the 'pro' marriage equality vote is reduced by about 7% on election day from what the polls said, but the 'anti' marriage equality vote remains basically unchanged. So if history holds true, we're looking at a 45-43 split, still in favor of the 'pro' marriage equality side.

    Remember, the polls report a %, but the voting is counted by the number of votes cast. If the number of 'pro' votes outnumber the 'anti' votes, the 'pro' side wins. If the number of 'anti' votes outnumber the 'pro' votes, the 'anti' side wins. And there is no law that says you MUST vote for every office and question on the ballot.

    Thus, I suspect many who say "I don't know" and many who have weak 'anti' inclinations skip the question, and some of the 'undecided' voters cast an 'anti'' vote, or don't vote at all.

  • 4. tom jode  |  October 23, 2012 at 8:56 am

    If you look at the polling data in detail you will see that it breaks down to 39% strongly in favor and 14% somewhat in favor. The against side is 36% strongly against and 7% somewhat against. I believe 5% said they were undecided. Let's say that from the somewhat in favor group somewhat more than 50% or 8% vote against and 6% in favor (assuming many in that group said they were in favor because they didn't want to be labelled bigots). That means 44% against and 45% in favor. Let's say the somewhat against break even, 3% in favor 3% or so against. That means that 48% will vote for and 4% against. That makes the poll a dead heat, despite the way it has been reported in the Post. If the undecideds break against (as they usually do) then the Q. 6 will lose.

    However, from the way the Post wrote the article you have no idea what the poll numbers really mean.

  • 5. Mike in Baltimore  |  October 23, 2012 at 9:45 pm

    So anyone who is for today will be for on election day, and anyone who is against today will be against on election day.

    If you had asked me a month ago if I was for or against Maryland's Proposition 7 (to expand slots and gambling in the state), I would have told the person asking I was against it, but not for the same reasons the ads were portraying (my reasons were for personal philosophical reasons, not at all based on economic issues).

    However, the 'No on 7' ads are more than 1/2 BS lies (such as calling the increase on state income taxes for those making more than [taxable] $100,000/year [single, $150k joint] as an increase on the middle class wage earner. Median household income for Maryland in 2010 was less than $69,000 [the typical American household made $50,046 in 2010]. The $100,000 is medium income figure comes from the PG County contractors association [in other words, owners of businesses]), and when I vote, I will vote FOR Prop 7.

    And I made that decision to change how I'll vote about two weeks ago.

    In other words, the ads of the 'No on 7' containing a majority of lies has caused me to change my mind to NOT vote no on 7, but to vote FOR prop 7.

    In other words, I changed my mind within a period of about two weeks (the same time period between when the poll was conducted and election day).

  • 6. Seth From Maryland  |  October 23, 2012 at 9:44 am

    [youtube 6dIvPZuEQC0 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dIvPZuEQC0 youtube]

    Maryland Marriage Alliance Panelist Implies LGBT Community And Allies Are 'Worthy Of Death'

  • 7. Gregory in SLC  |  October 23, 2012 at 10:45 am

    gotta love youtube!

  • 8. Seth From Maryland  |  October 23, 2012 at 11:34 am

    Now its time for the pro equality side in Maryland to make this into an ad and run and run it untill the end of the election

  • 9. Straight Ally #3008  |  October 23, 2012 at 11:53 am

    I simply can't imagine caring about someone else's sex life THAT much.

  • 10. Mike in Baltimore  |  October 23, 2012 at 5:20 pm

    Interesting.

    Just looking at the picture, I see the flags of Israel and Great Britain (aren't those two of the US's closest allies, according to Robme?), and the flag of either Australia or New Zealand (two more close allies of the US). There also appear to be the flags of several Arab nations.

    Is that the Greek flag between the flags of the US and the UK?

    It's not only NATO flags, otherwise the Israeli, Arab and Australia/NZ flags wouldn't be included.

    It's not Eurozone-only flags – the US, Australia, New Zealand, Israel and Arab nations are not part of the Eurozone.

    Arab League flags? Non-Arab countries are not in the Arab League.

    Looks like the flags represent the background of many different countries, thus the native country(ies) of the members of the GLBT community. (I say countries, as I'm part English, Irish, Scottish, Dutch, German, French and Swiss, and rumor has it part Norman [if you consider that a nationality] and part Native-American [upstate New York origin, probably Iroquois, if the rumor is true]).

    And friends and allies, even if not G, L, B or T, are considered part of the GLBT community, as the community is much broader than just gays, lesbians, bisexuals and/or transvestites.

  • 11. Mike Ho.  |  October 23, 2012 at 11:26 am

    <img src="http://www.newautoquote.us/ikeas/loo.jpg"/>Thank you for bringing us this good news. Look forward to hear more. <img src="http://www.newautoquote.us/xboz/jj.jpg"/&gt;

  • 12. Mike Ho.  |  October 23, 2012 at 11:26 am

    <img src="http://www.newautoquote.us/ikeas/loo.jpg"/>Thank you for bringing us this good news. Look forward to hear more. <img src="http://www.newautoquote.us/xboz/jj.jpg"/&gt;

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